The only way we can possibly win such a war is to build a coalition similar to NATO. China would have to launch an amphibious invasion, deploying troops along its beaches as the first step in a march towards the capital Taipei. President Xi Jinping of China has said unifying Taiwan with mainland China must be achieved. His Communist Party regime has become sufficiently strong militarily, economically and industrially to take Taiwan and directly challenge the United States for regional supremacy. The US is suddenly no longer the world's only military superpower. And the operating distances are enormous. A blockade, he says, would mean 80 per cent of ships and aircraft would be unable to pass. "In the case of war with China the questions we need to ask ourselves are: "When I stepped down as the Chief of theDefence Force in July 2002 I had not seen any information leading to the conclusion that an invasion of Iraq was inevitable. But, his hawkish new boss, Defence Minister Peter Dutton, says war with China should not be discounted. That leaves its navy as its primary fighting force. "I do not know whether Defence planners in Canberra would have made such estimates. The Pentagon's new report on the Chinese military suggests the effectiveness of the People's Liberation Army is less about numbers of missiles than in how they intellectually and organisationally prepare for war. Far fewer know their real story. As a subscriber, you have 10 gift articles to give each month. RELATED: It will be bloody: Threat to China. And a navy. Five-centuries-old saffron and ginger found preserved in shipwreck off Sweden, Chinese migrants walked a gruelling 500km to Victoria's goldfields in the 19th century. Beijings response was prompt and predictable. If the US went to war with China, who would win? Its military planners already expect these to be overwhelmed by missiles in the opening hours of any conflict. China has demonstrated its capabilities already, including in Taiwan, where it has waged disinformation campaigns, and in serious hacking incidents in the United States. Mr. Xi has championed . A new 'veloway' is welcome news for Melbourne's cyclists. A Chinese close-in weapons system (CIWS) designed to shoot down incoming missiles during recent war games. Professor Hugh White, a former Deputy Secretary for Strategy and Intelligence in the Department of Defence, Admiral Chris Barrie, Australias most senior military leader asChief of the Defence Force from 1998 to 2002, Allan Behm, a former head of the International Policy and Strategy Divisions of the Defence Department. And that would leave Australias critical fuel supply links to Singapore desperately exposed. Now it is China. This service may include material from Agence France-Presse (AFP), APTN, Reuters, AAP, CNN and the BBC World Service which is copyright and cannot be reproduced. What would war with China look like for Australia? Even with robotic flying tanker support, these enormous ships must operate dangerously close to an enemy before their F-18 Super Hornets and F-35B&C Lightnings are of any use. Space would be the first place both sides would go to strike the others forces in event of a conflict, says Tate Nurkin of the US-based Intelligence Group. "China's IADS includes an extensive early warning radar network, fighter aircraft, and a variety of surface to air missile (SAM) systems. Have employers used high inflation as cover to make excessive profits? If there is going to be a war between Taiwan and China, we will fight the war ourselves, he said. Is Australia prepared to pay the price to defend its friend Taiwan from China? This last outpost of pre-Communist China is an embarrassing thorn in Chairman Xi Jinpings paw. "Australia's armed forces add very little by way of capability to those of the US. "There would also be a possibility of exceptionalism if most other countries in Asia did not get involved. It has been growing by 6-8 per cent each year for the past five years but according to defence intelligence agency Janes, US spending remains miles ahead at $759 billion. On the military front, the United States should accelerate programs already underway to strengthen and disperse American forces in the Western Pacific to make them less vulnerable to attacks by China. "In its causation, [war with China] would be no different from any of the wars Australia has participated in since World War II. He believes a blockade of Taiwan by China is more likely than a cross-strait invasion. Even by 2050 our 37 million people could not amount to much alongside countries having a population base of over 100 million people many of them in our region. The four have more than 100 years of high-level military and strategic experience between them. Jamie Seidel is a freelance writer | @JamieSeidel. Defeat the affirmative expeditionary purpose of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). The US could also use submarines and stealth aircraft to attack Chinas shipping fleet in the Indian Ocean to cripple its economic lifelines in times of a crisis. Would Japan? What would all the other countries in Asia, such as South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia do? "Furthermore, in the lead up to March 20, 2003,I was working at Oxford and bearing witness to significant questioning of the intention to invade Iraq through public dissent "not in our name Mr Blair". As a career strategic analyst and defense planner, including for Australias Defense Department, I have spent decades studying how a war could start, how it would play out and the military and nonmilitary operations that China is prepared to conduct. That means large paved airfields, humidity-controlled hangars and AI-enhanced maintenance equipment. "Australia's real utility is as a strategic asset, giving both legitimacy and credibility to the US decision to employ its very formidable military force, and at the same time providing the US with a secure rear that could guarantee logistic and operational support. Supply chains of some critical goods and services need to be reconfigured to shift production to the United States or allied nations, and the United States must pursue a longer-term strategic drive to restore its dominance in global manufacturing. The idea sounds grand charging forth, flags flying, to save a bullied island friend. It runs between the Japanese islands of Mikako and Okinawa. "That is one reason to expect a stalemate.". "The joint facility at Pine Gap would be a very important, indeed crucial, element in US intelligence gathering and in Command and Control. The Chinese defence budget reached $324 billion this year. China is aware of this gap. Anyone can read what you share. It also allows the US to try to promote the notion it is not"an American war". Maybe, the record would show otherwise in time? 3-min read. "Today we can see change for the worse all over the globe. All it would take is one wrong move. Yet the war in Ukraine is relatively small-scale compared with the likely demands of a major war in the Indo-Pacific. But the Chinese are prepared to wage a much broader type of warfare that would reach deep into American society. And given Beijings singular focus on finding a way to sink US-style aircraft carriers, their capacity to carry combat aircraft into effective range has been dramatically curtailed. These engineers break their silenceafterdecade of criticism over2011 Queensland flood handling, Tens of thousands of pigs and buffalo pegged for mass culls in Kakadu, in bid to curb feral animals, With Russian forces closing, Svyat rolled the dice in the last days before Bakhmut fell, Anna called police to report an assault, but it backfired and she lost her home, Home ownership remains in fantasy territory for many. It now overlaps the ancestral territory of Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Borneo and India. Five-centuries-old saffron and ginger found preserved in shipwreck off Sweden, Chinese migrants walked a gruelling 500km to Victoria's goldfields in the 19th century. I do not think there is any credible chance that America, with or without Australia's support, could win a war with China over Taiwan. The US has launched 615 satellites into space in the last three years, compared to 168 by China, according to Lowy. If the United States cannot control the air, it cannot win either at land or at sea. And thats precisely the same vulnerability that saw obsolete battleships sent to the bottom so quickly during World War II. Chris Zappone and Eryk Bagshaw June 30, 2021 China-US superpower showdown: military strength Matthew Absalom-Wong "Even in Australia, with our record of setting up the basics of a rules-based order, governments have sometimes overlooked the provisions of the rules-based order, when it does not suit them. Of all the uncertainty and conflict in the world at moment, the repercussions of Australia joining the US in any war with China over the status of Taiwan or any other issue issurely one of the most important discussions we must have. Who has a better and stronger military, navy, air force, etc? If Australians are hearing the 'beating drums' of war, as Minister Mike Pezzullo put it, is it because Scott Morrison's Coalition government thinks banging on about China will be a winning . We cannot lose a single inch of the lands we inherited from our ancestors, the Chinese Defense Ministrys Information Bureau recently proclaimed, and we would not take a single cent of others possessions., RELATED: Drums of war: Ominous China warning. The context for decision making would be vitally important weighing the potential costs to the country, domestically and internationally, against the value of that cost for maintaining the ANZUS relationship. "So, how would China prosecute the war? The national broadcaster carried out the interviews with "four of Australia's most experienced military strategists" But which one would have military superiority in outright conflict? Conflict over the island of Taiwan would be a disastrous experience for the peoples of the region, and its something that we should all work to avoid. "Conventional submarines offer some additional intelligence gathering capability, and the other force elements provide a small additional capacity to the US. "China's leaders could discreetly offer negotiations to Taiwan's leaders during a blockade before the risky step of ordering an amphibious invasion," Professor Fernandes says. "Were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10 years, the best scenario one might envisage for the US is a stalemate. "As I see the decision for the invasion of Iraq I think it was made by the Prime Minister. One option to attack the man-made islands would be to send in teams of US Marine Raider commandos to destroy weapons systems. Do they think an all-volunteer defence force can do the job? "When the US closed down Bagram airbase in Afghanistan the Afghan Army collapsed. "The Kadena air base is 450 nautical miles away from Taiwan and threatened by Chinese surface-to-surface missiles. What determines victory, loss or stalemate between the US and China is likely to be determined by the murky calculus of how much risk and how much pain and loss both sides could endure. Professor Clinton Fernandesis a former intelligence officer in the Australian military and now Professor of International and Political Studies at the University of New South Wales. Vertical launch systems (VLS) are the modern-day equivalent of the World War II-era big gun. The United States cannot win a war against China over Taiwan, four Australian defense experts have said in a series of interviews conducted by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Wed like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. US-China war over Taiwan would be biggest since WWII, Australian expert says. Its army is now deploying troops to Africa for peacekeeping missions that give first-hand experience in conflict zones after decades of relative peace. The last time Chinese troops saw direct action was 1979 when China launched a costly month-long war against Vietnam to teach it a lesson in retaliation for Hanois actions in south-east Asia. Allan Behm, now head of the international and security program at The Australia Institute, says were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10 years the best potential outcome for the US is a stalemate. "Nor can it rely on the US for resupply by sea once a conflict begins. If Australia sleepwalks into a war with China, as many analysts fear is happening right now, then amid our strategic slumber we should at least ask one question: what would war with China mean for Australia? But unlike Ukraine, where Europe is largely united in condemning Russia, Asia will not be united in condemning China.". "China does have the mass to sustain a war of attrition over a long period as it did, and has continued to do, in Korea and in Vietnam for that matter.". The Pentagons latest threat assessment found China has already achieved parity with or even exceeded the United States in several military modernisation areas, including ship building, land-based conventional ballistic and cruise missiles, and integrated air defence systems.. "If we joined the fight, or allowed US forces involved to operate from bases here, then there would be a clear chance that Australia would face direct attack from Chinese long-range forces. Rebuilding them could take years. US forces would be fully committed to the maximum of their capacity, and they would expect and indeed demand the same of us.. Ross Babbage is a nonresident senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington and the C.E.O. The Peoples Liberation Army is capable of substantially subduing the US Navy in the waters around China, a Communist Party-owned newspaper boasts. All times AEDT (GMT +11). He says that unlike the experience of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan that affected only the members deployed into the conflict and their families, a war with China would have an impact on all Australians "economically, financially and personally it is likely to impoverish us all; it may even kill most of us if it goes nuclear". ", Any US-China war would be primarily a maritime conflict, and it would be, as we have seen, on a scale unprecedented since the Second World War. US fighters can operate out of Guam with adequate air-to-air refuelling support, but the round-trip transit time for a sortie is about six hours.". Mr. Xi has championed Chinas political warfare capabilities as a magic weapon.. "But it is an entirely different story with China. everything from electronics to furniture to shoes. "Would Australia have taken steps to make sure its own intelligence is based on Australian information and assessments? "Unlike the experience of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan that affected only the members deployed into conflict, and their families, a war with China will have an impact on all Australians economically, financially, and personally. Over the past decade, China has increasingly viewed the United States as mired in political and social crises. "China would not seek to deploy land forces to the US (nor Australia for that matter). There are less quantifiable aspects as well. This is a statesman-like response to the challenges we are addressing today wherein the risk of war has grown since 2017, in my opinion. The Pentagon views China as the "pacing threat," Gen. John "Mike" Murray, head of Army Futures Command, said March 17 during remarks at the Association of the United States Army's virtual Global Force Next conference. Australia's oldest running coal-fired power station is about to close. Credit:AP. China and the United States are the great rivals in the competition to win the 21st century. "They would probably inflict a lot of damage on Chinese targets, but they would suffer very serious losses in the process. Should a war break out around the South China Sea, the US would be under pressure to quickly neutralise the roughly 10 man-made islands China has created (seen as unsinkable aircraft carriers) to use as military bases.

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