There are 25 counties with a Democrat percentage vote over 60%. Texas likely isn't going Democratic, so we aren't including this in one of our 13 counties since it's less likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election. 11. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: List of election bellwether counties in the United States. Obama won it with 53 percent of the vote while winning statewide by just 75,000 votes in 2012. Combinedwith general population growth, and this election had 27 million more participants. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 105,724Republicans: 70,060Unaffiliated: 15,141Other: 6,079. That's 14 in a row. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties - Election Fraud at a Glance In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. The Tipping Points of the 2016 Election - The Atlantic North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. A few counties in America are known as the "bellwether counties": Those locations that always end up voting for the candidate who ultimately wins in the presidential election. Iowa (6 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. It might be actually the best bellwether in the state, as it closely mirrored the statewide vote in both 2008 and 2012, but it has fewer voters than Jefferson, which we highlighted. Have you looked at the results of these counties? All Rights Reserved. Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. Ryan Matsumoto is a contributing analyst for Inside Elections. That report was issued on Nov. 12. If youve done your research and found the 2020 results for each of these counties, you should find the results extremely puzzling. A county that voted for the winning party in 1992 (Democrat), 2000 (Republican), 2008 (Democrat) and 2016 (Republican), irrespective of how they voted at the other elections. He would have to really drive up big margins in the less populous counties in the mountainous Western part of the state, as well as Chesterfield (south of Richmond) and Virginia Beach. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 105,097Republicans: 87,763Democrats: 77,383. It provided the second highest vote totals of any county and a significant share for Democrats. The Art Of The Vote: Who Designs The Ballots We Cast. In their . From 1980 through 2016, 19 of the nation's more than 3,000 counties voted for the eventual president in every election. Suburban Richmonds Henrico County was once a reliable GOP stronghold it went twice for George W. Bush and backed Bob McDonnell in his 2009 gubernatorial win. (The highest value being again 66.1%). "The 2020 election was RIGGED.". Winnebago County: A large bellwether county in east-central Wisconsin, Mr. Trump won it in 2016, but in 2018 Democrats running for governor and the Senate performed much better. (i.e. But it's also not unprecedented. Some of the same messages that are going to work in Northeastern Ohio are maybe not going to work as well down here, said county GOP Chairman Alex Triantafilou. Until this year. In 2020, a single. When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there is 1 county that has a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. For Trump to win, he needs to flip a place like Racine, which went for Obama narrowly. Here are the counties that consistently voted more than 50% for the winning party since the 2000 election: To make things a little more interesting we will relax the constraints a little to include modern bellwether counties, that is, counties that have voted for the winning candidate since 1992. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. The most populous county in the state and home to Manchester and Nashua, Hillsborough twice voted narrowly for Bush and twice for Obama. The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. After Detroits Wayne County, Oakland County is the most-populous in the state. To flip Pennsylvania, Trump has to start in Bucks and expand in places like Northampton. As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. He is based in San Francisco and has also written for NBC News and The Hill. Bellwether - Wikipedia Unfortunately, Github (now a Microsoft company) terminated this website's account on 13 Jan 2021 for "spreading misinformation", a violation of their terms, although no specific examples were given. But it's still indicative of widespread support. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. Traditional Republican eastern counties of Carroll, Belknap and Rockingham, home to Portsmouth, fell back to the GOP in 2012, but not by enough for Romney, who had a home in the state, to win. For instance, Washington County, Maine the median bellwether county in terms of its share thats non-Hispanic white is 89 percent non-Hispanic white, which is much higher than the overall U.S. population that identifies as such (60 percent). 2016 primary winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 82,008Republicans: 80,068Democrats: 63,257. "It wasn't part of his strategy.". Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 54%-45% - 2008: Obama 57%-41%. Outstanding. Find Stephen on Twitter and Instagram, The Americans who almost always predict the president, China looks at reforms to deepen Xi's control, Historic ocean treaty agreed after decade of talks, Inside the enclave surrounded by pro-Russia forces, 'The nurses wanted me to feel guilty about my abortion, From Afghan TV fame to a US factory floor. Read about our approach to external linking. From his tweet: From 1984 through 2016, spanning presidential elections, seventeen US counties in several states ad voted for the winning presidential candidate in an astounding 148 of 153 times including 100% five times for five different presidents: Advertisement - story continues below 1984 Reagan 1996 Clinton 2000 Bush 2012 Obama 2016 Trump Fact check: 5 election statistics do not discredit Joe Biden's victory It has a slightly higher Hispanic population than Jefferson County 19 percent, according to the Census which makes it an uphill challenge for Donald Trump. From Florida to Texas, the 6 Key Counties That Could Decide the - Vogue How Does The Electoral College Work And Is It Fair? 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention)2012: Obama 51%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 128,938Republicans: 111,374Democrats: 109,140Libertarian: 3,388. Other counties to watch: Clinton has to drive up the margins in counties along the shores of Lake Erie, from Lucas (Toledo) to most notably Cuyahoga (Cleveland). Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. Read about our approach to external linking. Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. Relatively few counties across the nation switched party support in 2012, but Rockingham was one of them, flipping from Obama in 2008 to Romney. The more people can work out and see for themselves that the data clearly indicates a different outcome, the better. What are your thoughts on this article? In fact, according to David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, compared to 1,096 counties that fit that description in 1992. In each of the past three presidential elections, Arizona has had four consistently Democratic counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz) and 11 Republican ones (Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma). The American Voter's Alliance provides a great national overview with many reports, videos and detailed legal submissions. Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Cruz2012: Obama 53%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 101,967Republicans: 75,145Unaffiliated:65,344Libertarian: 1,022. During the campaign Mrs Day-Baker says that local Democrats organised a "Ridin' for Biden" parade of vehicles through parts of the county. History suggests not: just two-thirds of historic bellwether counties. (Sorry, not sorry.) Clinton needs to be closer to Obama's 57 percent in 2008 than his 55 percent in 2012. Its also loaded with government contractors and defense companies hit hard by the sequester. This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. We know these counties are the best of the best at predicting the election winner. She also has to run up the score in Franklin (Columbus, home to Ohio State University). Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton need to shore up their bases here in a place where there are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans or Democrats and major party registration is at near parity. They simply vote on merit. What are the odds of getting 21 heads or 21 tails? George W. Bush twice won comfortably in Forsyth County, the home of Winston-Salem. Hillary Clinton (578) Somehow we jumped from 22 to 1 county in one election cycle and we are supposed to believe that is normal? Driving up the margins in those places will be key for Clinton. Third, it lists the fractionof bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. To make things more interesting we will only look at swing counties since the 2004 election. Three-in-four votes for President Obama in 2012 came from Clark County. According to PolitiFact, voter turnout was66.2% in 2020 and 61.6% in 2008. Their hopes are real. Bucks has three times the voters than its neighboring county to the north. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. Other counties to watch: Perhaps no state more starkly displays the broader rural-urban divide in this country than Virginia. Answer (1 of 33): Because "bellwether counties" are a load of horse manure. With such overwhelming Democrat support in 2008, one can only surmise that ALL these 25 counties would have switched back to the Democrat party in 2020. Still, the key for Democrats is Salt Lake, which gave Obama more than half his statewide vote there. These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. TIP: Ask our loving God to act in dealing with corruption, restoring justice and integrity in the nation, and prayerfully consider who you should share information with and what your role might be. A switch county is our name for a county that happens to vote for the winning party whenever there is a change of parties, ignoring how they voted for the incumbent. The county narrowly voted for Bush in 2000 but has gone Democratic in the three presidential elections since then, though never by more than 52 percent. They are not a statistical curiosity, but the perfect distillation or embodiment of the whole countrys sentiment. Texas (38 electoral votes) - Likely Republican, Bellwether: Tarrant (Ft. Worth, Arlington). Watch Hampton City. Team up with others in your region, and help out by . Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. There are more than 3,000 counties in the United States, but in presidential elections they are not all created equal. Situated on the southern shore of Lake Erie in Ohio, Ottawa County is one of America's most accurate bellwether counties - a region where voters correctly pick the president, election after election for decades at a time. US election results: Why the most accurate bellwether counties - BBC After 8 elections, the number of counties left standing defy the odds, and it is this fact that makes them bellwether counties. 2016 primary winners: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 230,401Republicans: 211,817No Party Affiliation: 102,635Others: 16,526. Free and open-source. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: Allamakee County, Iowa, in 1992 and 2020 [3] Alamosa County, Colorado, in 2016 and 2020 [3] Baldwin County, Georgia, in 1980 and 2016 [3] Benzie County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020 [3] Blue Earth County, Minnesota, in 1988 and 2004 [3] Trump won the other 18 counties. Democrats also have to win big in Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Guilford (Greensboro), Durham and Buncombe (Asheville). Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. This was important for candidates since the presidential candidate's campaign would normally foot the bill. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Clinton is counting on running up big numbers in the city of Pittsburgh to offset any gains Trump may make in the suburbs, and in the more conservative surrounding southwestern Pennsylvania counties, including Westmoreland County. Did they narrowly miss out on voting for the Democrat party in 2020? The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night Clinton wouldn't mind having a win in Harris (Houston and its suburbs of over one million voters), Nueces (Corpus Christi) and Tarrant Ft. Worth/Arlington). It almost became religious.". The idea being these counties are good at sensing a change of sentiment and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them. Trump won Luzerne County by nearly 20 points in 2016, outperforming Romney . It went Republican in 2012; if Clinton is doing better or vice-versa there compared to Obama, it could be a sign of things to come. Their concerns are real. The meme compares information about former President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Donald Trump and Biden in 2020. This county, home to Reno, borders California and is at the opposite end of the state from Las Vegas. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Also key is Larimer (Fort Collins). Below are 10 bellwether counties that could give signs as to how the electorate feels this cycle and in future races. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night. "These counties, they're not real representations of America," says Mr Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics. These counties could play an . The 2020 election appears to illustrate that the partisanship that's defined politics in Washington for years has now spread to small-town America. Instead, you can Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel which has more recent updates. Ottawa County accurately predicted every president since 1964 until 2020, The Ottawa County commissioner says people are happy with Trump's accomplishments, Sunrise at East Harbor State Park, Ottawa County, Ohio, Minority voters who changed their minds about Trump, Chris Rock jokes about Oscars slap in Netflix show, Harry: I always felt different to rest of family, Everything Everywhere wins big ahead of Oscars, PM to end asylum claims from small boat arrivals, Street fighting in Bakhmut but Russia not in control, US-made cheese can be called 'gruyere' - court. Dave Wasserman, who analyzes election data for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Wall Street Journal that ticket-splitting appeared to make "a fashion comeback in many places.". Second, the meme includes the number of counties each candidate won Obama at 873, Trump at 2,497 and Biden at 477. So, even though they got it wrong in 2020, it is still worth figuring out how much they got it wrong by. The divisions were everywhere. What are bellwether counties and can they actually predict elections Arapahoe County. One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. Clinton has to hit that margin in this county where more than half a million people voted. Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. This one of 99 counties made up 16 percent of Obama's total vote in 2012. One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 50%-49% - 2008: Obama 51%-48%. We organized this by poll-closing time (all in Eastern time for the latest poll-closing times in that state), so you can follow along as the night goes: 1. "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble Democrats Woodrow Wilson, John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Grover Cleveland (twice) won elections while losing ground in the House, per The Atlantic. List of election bellwether counties in the United States These former bellwether counties are much whiter and less college-educated than the country as a whole. Hillsborough made up more than half that margin Obama won the county by 36,000 votes. The fourth-largest county in the state, its home to the Green Bay Packers, which are a huge economic engine. Lake County is a perpetual nail-biter. What Can We Learn from Bellwether Counties in Swing States? ), You can find the answers to the above questions yourself by searching this site: politico.com/2020-election/results Jeff. hide caption. There are a total of 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States.[1]. If Trump can't win back or cut into margins in places like Prince William, Fairfax and Loudon, he likely can't win the state. But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 316,586Republicans: 258,725No Party Affiliation: 206,457Others: 22,695. It's New Hampshire's biggest county by population. "There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised," they concluded. Here is a quick recap of what we have established so far: We will now introduce another new concept, called a switch county. The divisions were everywhere. ", "Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election", "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_election_bellwether_counties_in_the_United_States&oldid=1125445752, This page was last edited on 4 December 2022, at 01:36. These are places that are demographically strong for Republicans in the abstract, but might have had something that kept them closer to 50-50.". And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. 25 battleground counties to watch - POLITICO Our fact check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook. our Gitlab account where you can We relaxed the constraint by introducing the concept of a swing county, i.e. But county wins don't correlate with the popular vote, in part due to tremendousvariancein population size and density by county. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 73%-25% - 2008: McCain 63%-34%. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. there are signs that the progress he made there in 2016 winning the county by about 1.5 percentage points after Obama carried it by 16 points . An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections - SSRN The statistics also are not indicative of electoral fraud. Or want to contribute to our open-source collection of articles and statistics? In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. I would love to see Clinton or Kaine hold a truckstop rally and appeal to those guys., Latest voter registration totals: 146,952No party registration. While Bill Clinton was in town recently to open up a Democratic campaign office, party leaders are skeptical they can win here with Hillary Clinton on the ticket. In 1960, President John F. Kennedy lostall three states and won the White House, beating out future President Richard Nixon, according toSnopes. The county also features a diverse array of industries, from dairy farms and small manufacturers to major health-care companies. The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. What's more, in this year's election voters in leading bellwether counties didn't just come out for Donald Trump marginally; they backed him in droves. Or, if you dont have enough time, how many of the top 10 switch counties, which overwhelmingly voted Democrat in 2008 (with a percentage Democrat vote over 58% ! Find a coin, and flip it, and see how long it takes to (just) get 10 heads or 10 tails in a row. We have looked at every imaginable scenario to build a case for the Democrat party winning the 2020 election based upon how our trusted counties voted. Not a bad streak. These bellwether counties mirror close NC race for president Concretely, a switch county would have voted for the following parties: (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.). Fifth, it listswhether each candidate's politicalparty won seats in the House of Representatives which occurred withObama andTrump, but not Biden. In 2020, a single county in the setkept its perfect recordby tallying a win for Biden. That means, watch Bucks and Northampton counties. More Than Half of U.S. Population in 4.6 Percent of Counties, Fact check: Clarifying the comparison between popular vote and counties won in the 2020 election, Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election, Americas bellwethers crumbled in aligning with Trump in 20. For that reason,Rogers M. Smith, a political scientistat the University of Pennsylvania, told Reutersthat "focusing on counties won as an indicator of the likely popular vote winner makes no sense whatsoever.". You have probably noticed by now that with each new section we write, we are relaxing the constraints to make it easier to build a case for the Democrats winning the 2020 election. It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. The fact that there were 19 demonstrates the incredible predictive abilities of these counties.). For Trump to win, he has to carry this populous Detroit suburb. (Biden, for example, won over 70%of the vote in Los Angeles County. These key counties tell the story of America's shifting political landscape. As the country's demographics shift and the rural-urban divide becomes more pronounced, the chances appear slim. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud or other supposed issues with the election. As weve seen in the past two presidential elections, bellwether streaks can be suddenly ended thanks to Americas continually evolving political and demographic trends.

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